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In the Middle East, Biden’s ‘little carrot, no stick’ approach isn’t working
- The US president’s aggressive regional shuttle diplomacy will not yield dividends without firmer defence measures
- Biden’s reluctance to act forcefully in the region is sending the wrong message to rogue actors globally
The bottom line is that Biden’s reactive military stance in the Middle East over time has further destabilised an already dangerous region.
His reluctance to take firmer proportional action and failure to create a more determined level of US deterrence in the Middle East, particularly since October 7, have resulted in serious consequences for regional security, and beyond.
Firstly, Biden’s hesitancy has contributed to the considerable loss of US credibility and leverage in the Middle East, resulting in a more fragile status quo.
What are US troops doing in the Middle East and where are they?
In addition, Biden’s regional reluctance is sending the wrong message to rogue actors globally, particularly those in important strategic locations affecting international trade and security.
Overall, the US needs to go beyond Biden’s strategic drift, start seizing the initiative and increasingly shape events in the region with a focus on its core interests. Reversing course will require a bolder longer-term strategy accompanied by firmer action that sends a clear message to friends and foes alike.
However, expectations need to be kept in check. US foreign policy cannot make or break the Middle East, nor should it try to. Recent decades provide ample lessons. Ultimately, local forces and dynamics will determine the region’s future. But external actors will inevitably have a role to play and the US needs to step up.
Until then, the Biden administration will remain vulnerable to the many risks threatening regional stability and global security.
Marco Vicenzino, a country risk expert for Euromoney, specialises in geopolitical risk and international business development
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