China’s bleak demographic picture calls for decisive action from Beijing
- The country’s total population dropped 2.08 million in 2023, bigger than a fall of 850,000 in 2022
- Recent data confirms a long-term trend that China’s population has peaked, with some now predicting a chronic decline
China’s latest population data paints a deeply worrying demographic picture. Despite Beijing’s policy relaxation, births in the country slid to 9.02 million in 2023, the lowest level for 74 years.
Some demographers say this birth number might be the lowest since the mid-18th century. In other words, China’s birth rate has plunged to lower levels than those prevailing during years of famine, war and social turmoil in the country, indicating extreme reluctance to have children.
Secondly, China’s total population has dropped 2.08 million, bigger than a fall of 850,000 in 2022. Losing two million people is a bit like erasing two medium-sized cities from the map.
The data confirms a long-term trend that China’s population has peaked, with some now predicting a chronic decline – with a dramatic fall in the size of the country’s population and an accelerated rate of decline.
Thirdly, China is greying quickly. By the end of 2023, the country had almost 300 million people aged above 60, or 21.1 per cent of the total population.
The ageing process is faster than previous estimates. Research by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 2022 predicted that the rate would be “around 20 per cent” by the end of 2025. Instead, the era of “getting old before getting rich” is already here.
Some people argue China’s population data has been affected by one-off factors. For instance, a spike in deaths after the sudden ending of zero-Covid measures in the country in late 2022 may have accentuated the total population decline in 2023.
Others have said the forthcoming Year of the Dragon in 2024 – with the symbol one of the luckiest and most powerful in the Chinese zodiac – may encourage young Chinese couples to have more babies.
But this speculation in itself is a sign of the desperation in the country, with people now putting their faith in superstition to alleviate the birth crisis.
Unfortunately, although Chinese authorities have recognised this demographic trend as a problem, they have yet to take decisive moves or put massive resources into fixing the issue.
Although the central government has continued to dismantle various birth restrictions and called for a “new marriage and birth culture”, clearly local authorities have been left to do the heavy-lifting when it comes to providing actual incentives for people to have more children.
This relaxed attitude is in sharp contrast with the days of China’s one-child policy – which ran from 1980 to 2016 – when central authorities mobilised huge resources to establish rigorous birth control measures. As recently as 2001, China passed a family planning law to make it a legal responsibility for couples to restrict births.
China clearly cannot boost births by punishing those couples who refuse to have children or stop at one kid. Efforts must focus on incentives.
Some Chinese demographers, including Huang Wenzheng, have called on the state to provide a 1,000 yuan (US$140) per month subsidy to couples for each child they have under the age of 16.
While the chances are slim that such a proposal could be adopted quickly, it is an inescapable reality that the government will have to spend more money to reverse the existing population problem.
Among the many “grey rhino” risks faced by China, the population problem is probably the biggest and time is running out.
Had China started to encourage more births in 2004 or even 2014, the situation might have been a lot better today. Beijing’s ambitions of building a powerful socialist country by the middle of this century will be out of reach if the population keeps shrinking and ageing at the current rate.
The worst curse for any nation’s future would be if people decide to become “the last generation” and give up all hope in a better future.
China has been sleepwalking into this situation and the clock is ticking for it to take decisive action and change course.
