Demographer Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and author of Big Country with an Empty Nest, noted how China’s total population fall in 2023 was equivalent to the US state of New Mexico.

Economist Hao Hong wrote on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, that China’s population decline last year was a “concerning trend”.

2. Alarming decline in births

Mothers in China gave birth to 9.02 million babies last year, down 5.6 per cent from 9.56 million in 2022.

The falling number of newborns resulted in the lowest birth rate since records began in 1949, with 6.39 births for every 1,000 people, compared with 6.77 in 2022.

“The sustained decrease in new births is a consequence of disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, impacting both childbirth and death rates,” Yue added.

Demographer Yi said that, “most alarmingly, there were only 9.02 million births” in China in 2023.

3. Deaths surpass the population of Sweden

Last year, 11.1 million people died in China, an increase of 690,000 from 2022, pushing the national death rate to 7.87 per 1,000 people.

That death rate was up from 7.37 a year earlier, reaching the highest level since 8.06 in 1969.

Demographer Yi pointed out how deaths in China in 2023 surpassed the total population of Sweden.

4. Working-age population falls

China’s working-age population, aged 16-59, was 864.81 million in 2023, representing 61.3 per cent of the total population.

In 2022, China’s working-age population stood at 875.56 million, representing 62 per cent of the population, and down from 62.5 per cent in 2021.

The population aged over 60 reached 296.97 million in 2023, accounting for 21.1 per cent of the total population, while the population over 65 was 216.76 million, representing 15.4 per cent of the total.

In 2022, China had 280.04 million people aged over 60, up from 267.36 million people – or 18.9 per cent of the population – at the end of 2021.

In 2022, it also had 209.78 million people aged 65 and over, up from 200 million in 2021. The 2022 total accounted for 14.85 per cent of the population, up from 14.16 per cent in 2021.

5. Urban residents rise by almost 12 million

Permanent residents in China’s urban areas stood at 932.67 million in 2023, marking an increase of 11.96 million compared with a year earlier.

Permanent residents in rural areas, meanwhile, stood at 477 million, representing an annual decrease of 14.04 million.

The share of urban population in the total population – the urbanisation rate – was 66.16 per cent, or 0.94 percentage points higher than a year earlier.

6. Rebound in births expected, but downward trend looks to persist

The Economist Intelligence Unit expect a recovery in new births in 2024, driven by pent-up demand.

“This has the potential to contribute to a positive population growth trajectory once again,” Yue said.

“Without effective policy responses, such as household-focused fiscal transfers, enhancements in working conditions for female labour, and improved social-welfare coverage for migrant workers, replicating Japan’s stable fertility rate will be challenging for China,” Yue added.

For the past three decades, Japan’s fertility rate has been below 1.5, and in 2022 it fell for the seventh straight year to a record-matching 1.26, after having reached 1.4 in 2015.

“Addressing youth unemployment is equally crucial, as it contributes to delayed marriage and childbirth,” Yue said.